What to know about Brazil’s 2026 presidential election 

For the second election in a row, Brazilian voters face a choice between leftist candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and a right-wing candidate from the Bolsonaro family.

The country’s fractious election is set to take place during a wave of successful far-right candidates across Latin America and a sensitive time in Brazil’s modern political history.

Former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence over his role in a coup plot following his loss to Lula in 2022. The conviction of Jair Bolsonaro and several military officers raised questions about the resilience of Brazilian democracy, revived several decades ago following a period of rule by a United States-backed military dictatorship.

An explosive corruption scandal has implicated prominent figures and institutions across the political spectrum, and observers have expressed concern about possible US intervention.

Polls suggest Lula, the current president seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and Bolsonaro’s eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, are in a virtual tie in a simulated run-off.

Who are the candidates, what issues have been front and centre, and what could the election mean for Brazil? Here’s what you need to know about Brazil’s 2026 presidential elections.

When is the election?

The first round of voting in the Brazilian presidential election will take place on October 4 from 8am to 5pm Brasilia time (11:00 to 20:00 GMT).

If no candidate wins the first round outright, the top two candidates will proceed to a run-off vote on October 25.

Who is Lula?

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, better known simply as Lula, is the country’s current president and the candidate for the Workers’ Party, or the PT.

The 80-year-old has been a central figure in Brazilian politics for decades, serving two four-year presidential terms between 2003 and 2011, and his current term, which began in 2023.

His time in office has been defined by an effort to pair political democracy, restored after a US-backed military dictatorship that ruled the country for several decades until the 1980s, with material improvement for the country’s poor through a series of social programmes meant to address inequality.

Lula has also sought to forge ties between developing, non-Western countries on the global stage.

“He has come to embody the institutionalisation and consolidation of Brazilian democracy since the end of the dictatorship,” Andre Pagliarini, an assistant professor of history and international studies at Louisiana State University and the author of a book on Lula, told Al Jazeera in a phone call.

Who is Flavio Bolsonaro?

Flavio Bolsonaro has emerged as the heir to his father’s status as leader of Brazil’s political right and Lula’s main challenger in the 2026 election. Bolsonaro is running as the candidate of the right-wing Liberal Party.

The 45-year-old is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Flavio has pledged a hard stance on crime and insecurity and close collaboration with the administration of US President Donald Trump, which has designated several criminal groups in Brazil as terrorist organisations.

He has also promised to rein in inflation and government spending, with an adviser stating that he would implement a debt ceiling if elected.

Flavio Bolsonaro has also sought to turn his father’s conviction into a story of political persecution, denouncing his trial as illegitimate and seeking his release from prison.

“I ask God for the opportunity to walk up the ramp of Planalto Palace next year alongside President Jair Messias Bolsonaro, so that he may place the presidential sash across my chest,” he said at a campaign event in September.

“The Bolsonaro family’s pitch is that the institutions that Brazilian democracy has erected since the end of dictatorship are either rotten and unresponsive, and that we need a sharp turn away from this status quo,” said Pagliarini.

“The stakes of this election are incredibly stark because the candidates stand for such opposing visions about what Brazil’s recent history means,” he added.

What issues have defined the race?

As with many recent elections across the region, crime, insecurity and cost of living issues have dominated the Brazilian election. Corruption and concerns about US intervention in the country’s domestic affairs have also loomed over the campaign.

A Quaest survey from September 7 found that 31 percent of respondents cited violence as their biggest concern, followed by 20 percent who said corruption, 19 percent who said the economy, and 12 percent who said health.

While Brazil has seen decent economic growth and low unemployment and inflation during Lula’s third term, those mild gains have been paired with explosive levels of household debt and concerns about the rising cost of living.

A report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a left-leaning US-based think-tank focused on economic issues, found that extreme poverty in Brazil fell by about 40 percent between 2022 and 2024, unemployment dropped to historic lows, and the country’s economic growth significantly outpaced that of most of its neighbours. But the analysis also found that households were strained by a sharp uptick in the cost of servicing debt. All in all, analysts say they amount to a view of the economy that is neither catastrophic nor particularly satisfying.

Pagliarini says that both candidates have tried to steer the election onto more favourable terrain for their issues of choice, with Lula portraying Flavio Bolsonaro as a willing accomplice in US efforts to undermine Brazilian sovereignty, and Flavio Bolsonaro accusing Lula of being corrupt and weak on crime.

What do the polls say?

Analysts say that polls reflect the state of Brazilian politics: deeply polarised but unenthusiastic.

“The general vibe is that this is a very downbeat campaign,” said Pagliarini. “There’s not a lot of enthusiasm either way, and it’s hard to tell at this stage who that favours.”

Most surveys show a close race, with Lula holding a marginal advantage over Flavio Bolsonaro that tightens further in a hypothetical run-off.

A Quaest survey from September shows Lula with 37 percent of voter intention against Flavio Bolsonaro’s 33 percent, while an AtlasIntel survey from the same period showed Lula winning 46 percent to Flavio Bolsonaro’s 43 percent.

A Datafolha poll found Lula with 40 percent and Flavio Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

Polls also show Flavio Bolsonaro favoured over Lula on issues of inflation, combatting corruption, and crime and drug trafficking, while Lula is seen more favourably on issues of poverty and inequality, foreign affairs and health.

What challenges has each campaign faced?

An explosive corruption scandal, focused on disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro, has raised questions for both campaigns and implicated members of the country’s political and economic elite across the political spectrum.

Reports found that Flavio Bolsonaro had solicited substantial funds from Vorcaro, ostensibly to finance a documentary – The Dark Horse (or O Azarao) – about his father.

Lula’s former finance minister, Guido Mantega, has also said he helped arrange a meeting with Vorcaro, Lula and the head of Brazil’s central bank to discuss banking policy. Lula has said he told Vorcaro there would be no political interference in his bank’s case, only a “technical investigation conducted by the central bank”. Reuters confirmed the meeting.

The scandal has also embroiled the country’s Supreme Court, with Alexandre de Moraes, whose central role in Bolsonaro’s coup trial turned him into a subject of ire for the political right, facing questions about his own links to the banker.

De Moraes has in turn accused a justice appointed by Bolsonaro of wrongdoing, with the court considering probes into the conduct of both justices.

Concerns that the Trump administration could intervene or seek to influence the outcome on behalf of Bolsonaro have also loomed over the election.

The US president has frequently threatened to cut off economic assistance to Latin American countries if his preferred candidate fails to win. Trump had also used sanctions to target members of the Brazilian judiciary involved in the case against the elder Bolsonaro, which he portrayed as a “witch-hunt”. Trump also placed heavy tariffs on Brazil in a bid to have the case thrown out.

The country’s government denied visas to two US officials who sought to travel to Brazil, saying they planned to cast doubt on the integrity of Brazilian elections. Lula’s government has warned the US against meddling in the country’s domestic affairs.

Trump has himself used false claims of rampant fraud to justify efforts to remain in office despite his election loss in 2020.

A group of 31 Democratic US Congress members recently sent a letter to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticising “an apparent effort to interfere with, and potentially undermine” Brazilian elections.

The Reuters news agency reported that Brazilian intelligence officials also briefed a French and German delegation in September about possible interference in the election by outside powers such as the US and Russia. The officials said that US interference ranged “from lawfare to interference that is openly acknowledged”.