Mozambique’s controversial election result upheld: What next as Chapo wins? 

The top electoral court in Mozambique has largely upheld the results of the country’s disputed October elections, re-affirming the governing Frelimo party’s decades-long hold on power, and leading to fears of more violence in a country already rocked by weeks of deadly protests.

In a ruling on Monday, judges of the Constitutional Council named Daniel Chapo as the next president, confirming that the Frelimo candidate won 65 percent of the vote, as opposed to a previously announced 70 percent. It also awarded main challenger Venancio Mondlane four more points in the polls, giving him a total 24 percent share.

That ruling did little to appease supporters of the firebrand opposition presidential candidate who claims he won the elections. Mondlane had threatened “chaos” before the court’s announcement, and urged his supporters to “shut down” the country this week if Frelimo’s win was confirmed.

The country of 34 million people has been on edge since the October 9 general elections. Mondlane’s supporters, mostly hundreds of thousands of young people, have since taken to the streets, and have met gunfire from security forces.

At least 110 people had died across the country by Monday, according to rights group Amnesty International. Other monitoring groups have put the death toll at up to 130.

Here’s what to know about what happened in the elections; why the vote was controversial; and what may happen next:

Why were the elections controversial?

The October elections saw the little-known Chapo, candidate of the governing Frelimo (Mozambique Liberation Front), win by a massive landslide. Frelimo also improved its parliament majority in the 250-seat cabinet.

However, opposition candidate Mondlane, and his allied party, Podemos (Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique), who have strong support among Mozambique’s youth population, claim the results were rigged. The country has one of the youngest populations in the world with 56 percent of the population aged 19 and below.

Mondlane, who was Chapo’s closest challenger among three other candidates, won 24 percent of the vote, judges said on Monday. The politician, however, claims that he won 53 percent, going by his party’s tally. Podemos also claims to have won 138 seats in parliament, as opposed to the 31 seats initially announced by the National Election Commission (CNE).

Frelimo has governed Mozambique since the country’s independence from Portugal in 1975. The party’s leaders, including outgoing President Filipe Nyusi, fought in the country’s liberation war, meaning that Frelimo was highly revered by most older members of the population who experienced the war.

However, the party has become increasingly unpopular among young people. It’s part of a larger trend in Southern Africa where youth, who do not have a sense of nostalgia around independence movements-turned-establishment parties, are more critical of their governments and more ready to vote them out. Botswana, South Africa, and Namibia all recorded total or partial opposition leads in general elections this year.

In Mozambique, high levels of unemployment, general economic decline, and an armed conflict in the north have sullied Frelimo’s legacy. Northern Mozambique is in the grips of an insecurity crisis due to armed attacks on civilians by the al-Shabab armed group.

Meanwhile, extreme weather events such as storms have also hit the same region, causing destruction, disease, and hunger. In the latest disaster on December 15, Cyclone Chido made landfall in Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula provinces, killing at least 94 people.

What prompted the violent protests?

Following the October 9 elections – even before the results were officially announced – Mondlane cried foul, accusing Frelimo and the CNE of rigging the polls and intimidating Podemos supporters. The opposition politician called for strikes and mass protests on the streets, as the vote tally exercise dragged on and it was clear that Frelimo had won.

Like Mondlane, the two other presidential candidates in the elections also denounced the unofficial results. Ossufo Momade of the Renamo (Mozambican National Resistance) party, the biggest opposition party before now, won 6 percent of the vote. A fourth candidate, Lutre Simango of the MDM (Democratic Movement of Mozambique), who won 3 percent of the vote, also alleged fraud.

In addition, the country’s Association of Catholic Bishops also rejected the election results, alleging cases of ballot stuffing and forged result sheets. Similarly, poll observers from the European Union said they noted “unjustified alteration” of results at some polling stations.

Shortly before the demonstrations began on October 19, gunmen killed two senior Podemos leaders: lawyer Elvino Dias, who was planning to file a legal challenge, and parliamentary candidate Paulo Guambe. Mondlane claimed the state security forces were responsible, further fuelling Podemos supporters’ anger. Authorities denied the allegations, and Frelimo’s Chapo called for an investigation into the killings.

Unappeased, thousands in Maputo and other cities poured out in support of Podemos. Protesters targeted police stations and damaged Frelimo billboards and other government buildings. Security officials deployed to quell the protests used live gunfire on demonstrators, killing dozens. On October 21, Podemos legally challenged the vote at the Constitutional Council, the highest body that can rule on electoral law.

On October 24, the electoral commission declared the official results, prompting larger and more violent demonstrations, which have since erupted sporadically. Protesters have set fires and barricaded roads in Maputo and other cities. The government in November deployed soldiers to help keep order, but demonstrators have continued to gather intermittently.

It’s some of the worst bouts of violence Mozambique has experienced in more than 30 years. Many compare the unrest to when the country was in the grips of a civil war between Frelimo and Renamo between 1977 and 1992.

At least 329 people have been shot at, and children and bystanders are among the 110 killed, Amnesty International said last week, while Human Rights Watch put the toll at 130 dead. Police have arrested more than 3,500 people and have cut off the internet at intervals to disrupt demonstrators’ actions, the groups said.

What did Mondlane do?

Mondlane said he fled the country to an unknown location after his Podemos colleagues were murdered, fearing for his life. It’s unclear precisely when he left, or where he might be at the moment. At one point, Mondlane said he was not on the continent.

The politician, who has 1.2 million followers on Facebook, has continued to use the platform to call for more protests to see “an end to the regime” of Frelimo, and also in solidarity with those protesters killed in the post-electoral violence.

State prosecutors have filed charges against Mondlane for his public calls to paralyse the country, alleging attempts to illegally seize power. They’re demanding $505m worth of damages, which they claim the state has incurred from the politician. Authorities also froze Mondlane’s bank accounts.

Early on Monday, in advance of the decision of the council, which irrevocably finalised the electoral commission’s results, Mondlane threatened to call for a popular uprising if the judges ruled in favour of Frelimo.

“If we have electoral truth, we will have peace … If we have electoral lies, we will make the country fall into a precipice, into chaos, into disorder. I hope they understand me,” he said, adding that his supporters should “shut down” the country from Monday until Friday.

​​Of the Constitutional Council’s seven judges, four were appointed by Frelimo parliamentarians. Judge Lucia Ribeiro, who heads the council and who announced the ruling on Monday, was handpicked by outgoing president Nyusi to head the council in 2019.

Nyusi earlier called for a meeting of all the presidential candidates in late November, however, Mondlane said he would only attend if Frelimo accepted that he had won the elections, and if the lawsuits against him were dropped.

How has the violence affected the economy?

Weeks of unrest have seen businesses shutter in Maputo and other hot spots of violence.

The International Monetary Fund in November downgraded a previously forecasted 5 percent growth rate to 4.3 percent in November. Last week, a senior official at the institution told the Reuters news agency that the continued violence, in addition to effects from Cyclone Chido, could see another downward forecast by the end of the year.

An estimated 2 million people visit the country’s pristine beaches and tropical islands, but their numbers have noticeably dipped since the elections, business owners say. In Ponta do Ouro, a tourist destination on the southern border with South Africa, business owner Jose Sumbane told Al Jazeera this week his accommodation business was feeling the heat.

“We’ve had many cancellations, right now occupation is a little bit less than 40 percent,” he said. “People are still waiting to see if the protests will continue or not, they say the security situation is not very good.”

Neighbouring countries’ imports have also been affected, as cargo has been stuck at Mozambique’s Maputo and Beira ports, two of the most used by countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Some companies in landlocked Zimbabwe have had to redirect their cargo to other regional ports, business owners say.

South Africa temporarily closed its borders between November 6 and 9 after vehicles and buildings were reportedly torched on the Mozambican side of the Lebombo border post, one of the region’s busiest land ports. South African authorities also said at the time that seven Mozambican officials had requested refuge on the South African side.

What next?

“Legally, it is the end … the Constitutional Council is the highest in the land … so this ruling cannot be appealed,” Adriano Nuvunga, the director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Mozambique, told Al Jazeera.

“[The results] do not reflect the will of the people, substantively speaking, they are not credible, but they are the legal results we have,” he said.

The “entire Mozambican population” is unhappy with the Frelimo government, the social activist added, explaining that “the overall legitimacy and capacity of Frelimo to protect its victory is very limited, in the sense that unlike in the past, you had state machinery rallying behind Frelimo – this time you don’t have. That’s why you have high military brutality, because they’ve resorted to violence to protect their rule.”

Even though, “Frelimo is confirmed”, Nuvunga said, “it will be like climbing a mountain [for them] to rule.”

As far as Mondlane is concerned, he said “I don’t see the Frelimo machinery allowing him to come back [to Mozambique]”.

On the ground, Mondlane’s supporters are likely to heed the politician’s calls and head back into the streets in protest, analysts said. It’s also likely that demonstrations could again turn violent, and that some deaths might be recorded.

Security officials were heavily deployed on Monday, with gun-toting soldiers and helicopters visible. However, videos on Facebook already showed scenes of tyres burning on some streets in Maputo.